Understanding technological stagnation
I have just read the book What We Owe the Future from the philosopher William MacAskill. He takes a very long-term view of our future, discussing the challenges humanity may face over hundreds, thousands, and even millions of years—just mind-boggling to think about. He also explores the role of technology in this book, and I am focusing on those elements in this article. It offers a completely different perspective from the articles I have previously written, which have centered on more short-term future scenarios involving cybercrime, cybersecurity, social media, and the dangers of these developments. While we can’t predict the future, we can help shape it through the actions we take during our lifetime.
Technological progress has long been the engine of human advancement. From the steam engine to the internet, innovation has transformed economies, improved health, and reshaped societies. Yet, as we look to the future, the spectre of technological stagnation looms—a world where innovation slows or ceases, leaving humanity to grapple with profound consequences. This potential future is not merely a concern for scientists or economists; it is a challenge that could impact every aspect of our lives.
Why technological stagnation happens
Technological stagnation occurs when advancements in science and technology become increasingly difficult, costly, or yield fewer transformative breakthroughs. Historically, many of the most impactful innovations emerged during periods when foundational discoveries were abundant and relatively accessible. However, as society solves easier problems, remaining challenges often require more complex and resource-intensive solutions. Current long-term trends suggest that the pace of innovation may already be slowing in some fields, with diminishing returns on research investments. For example, in pharmaceuticals, the development of new life-saving drugs has become more expensive and time-consuming. In computing, Moore’s Law—the principle that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles roughly every two years—has begun to plateau as physical limits approach. Combined with demographic shifts such as ageing populations and declining birth rates in many countries, the pool of talent available to drive innovation may also shrink, compounding the risk of stagnation.
Economic consequences
First and foremost, technological stagnation would cripple economic growth. Innovation is the driving force behind productivity and prosperity. Without it, economies may stagnate, leading to slower growth, fewer job opportunities, and a decline in living standards. Industries that rely on constant advancements, such as healthcare, energy, and information technology, could face diminishing returns, resulting in higher costs and fewer breakthroughs. In a world where progress is essential to maintaining competitive economies, stagnation could leave nations struggling to sustain their development.
Impact on quality of life
The impact on quality of life would be equally severe. Technological advancements have brought us improved healthcare, faster transportation, and better communication. Without continued innovation, progress in treating diseases, enhancing mobility, and expanding access to education could stall. The development of life-saving treatments might slow, and medical breakthroughs could become rarer, affecting global health outcomes. In our interconnected world, where innovation often bridges social and economic divides, stagnation could deepen existing inequalities.
Environmental challenges
Environmental challenges would also become harder to address. Combating climate change and reducing environmental degradation depend on breakthroughs in renewable energy, carbon capture, and sustainable technologies. Technological stagnation would slow the development of these solutions, making it more difficult and costly to mitigate climate change. Without advancements in energy efficiency and green technologies, meeting global sustainability goals would become increasingly elusive.
Social and cultural implications
Social and cultural progress would not be immune. Innovation drives social change, enabling new ways of communicating, learning, and collaborating. A slowdown in technological advancements could limit the spread of new ideas and slow the pace of social progress. Societies may become more resistant to change, and existing social inequalities could become more entrenched, as the tools that empower marginalised communities become scarcer.
Geopolitical and demographic effects
Geopolitically, technological stagnation could shift global power dynamics. Nations that continue to innovate would gain a competitive advantage, while those that lag behind could face economic and strategic disadvantages. In the realm of national security, technological advancements are essential for maintaining defence capabilities. Without ongoing innovation, countries could find themselves vulnerable to emerging threats, undermining global stability.
Demographic challenges would also be exacerbated. As populations age and workforces shrink, innovation is crucial to maintaining productivity and supporting economic growth. Automation and artificial intelligence have the potential to offset demographic challenges, but without technological advancements, societies may struggle to sustain their economies. The burden on shrinking workforces would increase, making it harder to support ageing populations.
Existential risks
Perhaps most concerning are the long-term existential risks. Technological progress is essential for addressing global threats such as pandemics, climate change, and asteroid impacts. Without innovation, humanity’s ability to prevent or mitigate these risks would diminish. Furthermore, our long-term survival may depend on advancements in space exploration and resource utilisation. Without continued progress, the possibility of becoming a multi-planetary species could remain beyond reach.
A reason for optimism
However, there is room for optimism. In What We Owe the Future, philosopher William MacAskill presents a hopeful perspective through the concept of “longtermism”—the idea that our actions today can profoundly shape the future of humanity. MacAskill argues that humanity is at a pivotal moment, with the opportunity to influence the course of civilisation for millennia to come. By prioritising long-term outcomes, we can steer society toward sustained prosperity and moral progress. History has shown that societal shifts, such as the abolition of slavery and advancements in human rights, demonstrate our capacity for positive change. Similarly, fostering innovation and embedding ethical values in technological development can create a future where humanity thrives.
Moreover, MacAskill highlights humanity’s resilience. Despite facing numerous challenges throughout history, societies have repeatedly adapted and progressed. This resilience offers hope that, with deliberate effort, we can overcome the risk of stagnation. By investing in research, supporting education, and creating environments that nurture creativity, we can continue to drive innovation and ensure a flourishing future for generations to come.
Conclusion
In conclusion, technological stagnation would have far-reaching consequences, affecting economic growth, quality of life, environmental sustainability, and global stability. Yet, the principles of longtermism remind us that we have both the responsibility and the ability to shape a better future. By fostering innovation, supporting scientific research, and promoting ethical progress, we can address today’s challenges and unlock the possibilities of tomorrow.
Paul Budde