History often moves in cycles, with periods of stability followed by times of upheaval. Today, the world finds itself in a precarious state, teetering between progress and crisis. Economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and social instability suggest that we may be nearing a breaking point. Yet, despite these challenges, history also teaches us that new leadership and reform can emerge from moments of crisis. The question is: will we see a shift toward rational governance, or will we repeat the mistakes of the past?
Are we at the end of an era of prosperity?
For much of the post-Cold War period, the world experienced relative stability and economic growth, punctuated by occasional financial crises and regional conflicts. However, multiple factors suggest that this period of prosperity may be ending:
- Economic fragility: Rising inequality, unsustainable debt levels, and global inflation point to a potential economic downturn. The U.S. appears to be heading into recession, which could have global ramifications.
- Geopolitical uncertainty: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, tensions over Taiwan, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the tribal wars and terrorism in Africa suggest that global stability is eroding.
- Structural global problems: Climate change, digital monopolies, and political polarisation remain unresolved, contributing to long-term instability.
Despite these concerns, a full-scale collapse is not inevitable. The direction we take will depend on the quality of leadership and the willingness of societies to demand effective solutions.
War or systemic reform?
Historically, major changes have been driven by crises. The Great Depression led to both the New Deal and the rise of fascism; the Cold War saw both proxy wars and technological advancements; the fall of the Soviet Union ushered in a new global order without direct war. Today, we may be at a similar crossroads:
- If economic pain deepens, will societies demand reforms, or will they turn to populist strongmen offering simplistic solutions?
- If geopolitical conflicts escalate, will diplomacy prevail, or will the world slip into a broader war?
- If climate disasters intensify, will governments take meaningful action, or will inaction lead to further chaos?
While many fear that we are on the brink of another historical cycle of war and economic collapse, there is also a possibility of a more managed transition. The question remains whether leaders will take the necessary steps before a major crisis forces their hand.
Leadership in times of crisis
The emergence of great leaders often coincides with major crises. Churchill’s leadership was forged in World War II, Mandela emerged from decades of oppression to lead South Africa, and Zelensky rose to global prominence when Ukraine faced existential threats. The world today lacks clear visionary leaders, but that does not mean they won’t emerge.
The current wave of populism has produced leaders who thrive on division rather than problem-solving. However, populist movements often burn out when they fail to deliver real results. This could create an opening for more competent and pragmatic leadership in the coming years.
A holding pattern, but not forever
For now, the world is in a pre-crisis phase—problems are mounting, but no single event has yet forced a radical change. The global economy is shaky but still functioning. Conflicts are ongoing but have not yet escalated into full-scale global wars. Political dysfunction is evident, but no alternative system has yet emerged.
This holding pattern cannot last indefinitely. Whether the next shift will bring war, economic collapse, or a new era of rational governance depends on the choices made by political leaders and the will of the people. If history is any guide, real change will come—but only when a crisis forces it.
Optimism or pessimism?
History suggests that crises can lead to either destructive authoritarianism or visionary leadership and reform. The world has faced existential challenges before and emerged stronger, but only after exhausting all easier and often damaging alternatives.
The world may be in a holding pattern today, but the next few years will determine whether we enter another cycle of chaos or finally break the cycle with genuine reform. While the trend currently leans toward instability, history shows that when the moment demands it, transformative leaders can and do emerge.
The only question is: will it take catastrophe to bring them forward, or can we course-correct before disaster strikes?
Paul Budde
See also: What comes next after the end of the’ golden’ post-WWII era?