For the last 80 years, the world has operated on the assumption of growth — more people, more production, more innovation. But that cycle, born out of the post-WWII peace and prosperity boom, is showing signs of strain. Behind today’s most pressing issues — climate change, housing stress, digital inequality, and geopolitical instability — lies a deeper structural shift: the demographic machine that powered our global economy is slowing down.
And yet, our technological and economic systems are still wired for expansion.
In the developed world, we are now facing an uncomfortable reality: shrinking populations, ageing societies, and overstretched public systems. At the same time, many parts of Africa and the Middle East are experiencing explosive population growth, often without the governance frameworks or infrastructure to keep pace. The resulting imbalances are already playing out through rising migration, political polarisation, and resource competition.
Technology meets demographic tension
Nowhere is this tension more visible than in the digital economy. Over the past few decades, technological innovation has been celebrated as the great enabler — unlocking productivity, creativity, and global connection. But what happens when the social and economic foundations that sustained this wave begin to shift?
In my earlier piece The hidden dangers of technological stagnation — and why there is still hope, I argued that progress without purpose can turn innovation into distraction. That risk is now more acute than ever. With fewer workers and slower economic growth, we are increasingly reliant on automation and artificial intelligence to keep systems running. But these tools, while powerful, cannot replace the broader social compact that underpinned the post-war era of expansion.
Much of the current hype around AI and big data conceals the reality that innovation is becoming increasingly centralised — driven by a handful of global players and used primarily to optimise profits, not solve real-world challenges. In many cases, the technology is developing faster than the society around it can adapt.
A digital economy under review
The economics of tech still run on the logic of scale: more users, more engagement, more monetisation. But if populations in key markets start to decline — as is already happening in China, Japan, South Korea, and parts of Europe — who will buy the products, watch the ads, or subscribe to the platforms?
Worse still, we are seeing the digital divide widen. In the Global South, a youth-driven population surge is colliding with jobless growth and digital exclusion. Without significant investment in skills and infrastructure, millions risk being locked out of the global economy. At the other end of the spectrum, ageing societies face rising healthcare costs, declining workforces, and mounting pressure to automate essential services.
This shift will force a major rethink in how we design and fund digital systems. It’s not enough to expand networks or roll out smart technologies — we need to address the structural conditions that determine who benefits and who is left behind.
A social system under strain
The demographic shift also affects social cohesion. As I explored in What comes next after the end of the’ golden’ post-WWII era? historical cycles of prosperity are often followed by instability when resources become overstretched or unevenly distributed. In today’s digital context, this shows up as distrust in institutions, political fragmentation, and cultural dislocation.
We see this most clearly in the lives of young people. In my article ‘Adolescence’ exposes the danger of digital dysfunction, I examined how social media and algorithmic platforms are reshaping the way teenagers interact, form identities, and understand the world. These platforms — designed to capture attention, not foster connection — are exacerbating mental health crises and undermining civic trust.
At the other end of the generational divide, a different but equally damaging form of exclusion is taking hold. As was raised in the timely article Digital exclusion: a new form of ageism? many older Australians are being left behind by the digital transformation of essential services. From online banking to MyGov portals, everyday tasks are increasingly inaccessible without digital fluency — a silent form of structural discrimination that marginalises those who built the very society now shifting beneath their feet. As the population ages, this digital ageism risks deepening social isolation and eroding the promise of inclusive technology.
From growth to resilience
We are entering a world where the assumptions of the past no longer apply. The global population is still growing — projected to peak around 10.4 billion later this century — but the growth is uneven and unsustainable. In fact, some projections suggest a sharp global decline in population after 2100. This could reduce pressure on the planet, but it will also require profound adaptation in how we manage economies, technologies, and societies.
What does this mean for the ICT sector? It means we must shift from chasing growth to building resilience.
- Designing for longevity and inclusivity will matter more than reaching scale.
- AI and robotics must be developed not just to replace labour, but to support ageing populations and underserved communities.
- Climate-resilient infrastructure — from broadband to data centres — will need to be part of long-term national strategies.
- And most of all, digital systems must rebuild social trust, not erode it.
In the meantime, we’re witnessing the return of populist, erratic politics — with figures like Donald Trump offering reactive, often divisive responses to complex global pressures. While these movements exploit legitimate frustrations, they offer few — if any — real answers to the structural challenges we face in ICT, economics, or social inclusion. If anything, they risk further delaying the thoughtful, long-term planning we now urgently need.
The future of innovation won’t be measured in quarterly earnings or download numbers. It will be judged by how well we navigate the coming transitions: demographic, environmental, and societal. Growth was once our guiding principle. Now, adaptation must be.
Paul Budde