At first, forecasters anticipated that the cyclone would make landfall near Brisbane on Thursday, 6 March. However, as it approached, it began to slow down considerably. Each update from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) pushed the expected landfall back by another day, then another, as Alfred’s sluggish movement left the region in an extended state of uncertainty. At one point, it even did a pirouette, momentarily shifting back towards the ocean. This unpredictability led to the closure of more than 500 schools in Queensland and 100 in northern New South Wales, the suspension of public transport, airport closures, and the activation of evacuation centres across the region.
From Wednesday, 5 March, the effects of the cyclone became increasingly apparent, especially in areas south of Brisbane, such as the Gold Coast and northern New South Wales. The Bureau had warned that the most intense and destructive part of the system would not necessarily be its centre, but rather its extensive southern tail—a massive sweep of storm activity stretching as far as 300 km south from the core. This prediction proved accurate, as powerful winds and relentless rain battered the region.
Over the following two days, conditions deteriorated dramatically, causing widespread havoc. Winds of 70–120 km/h brought down trees and powerlines, leaving around 300,000 homes without electricity—the largest power outage ever recorded in Australia. The region saw widespread road closures, the postponement of sporting events, and the suspension of shipping operations. Strong winds toppled trees, roofs were torn from houses, and extensive beach erosion occurred, with millions of cubic metres of sand gouged from over 500 km of coastline.
As predicted, the cyclone’s southern tail also delivered torrential rain, exacerbating the crisis. A flood watch was issued over a stretch of 400 km. In some areas, daily rainfall totals exceeded 400 mm. While many smaller communities in northern NSW experienced flooding or became isolated, Lismore and other larger cities along the northern rivers fortunately avoided major inundation this time.
Finally, on the morning of Sunday, 10 March, Alfred made landfall north of Brisbane—though by this time, it had weakened to a tropical low. Still, the storm’s impact continued to be felt, with gale-force winds and flood risks persisting.
However, by Saturday, we had assumed the worst had passed, and Brisbane seemed to have escaped significant damage. We placed some of our outdoor furniture back on the balcony and even enjoyed breakfast and lunch there that day. That afternoon, we gathered at our daughter’s place for an impromptu board game session and a dinner for 13, making use of the extra supplies bought in anticipation of the cyclone. While it rained throughout the day, it was nothing particularly alarming.
However, the situation changed dramatically overnight from Saturday to Sunday. As expected with cyclonic systems, the wind suddenly shifted direction, now coming from the north instead of the south. With the cyclone moving inland, we found ourselves in the grip of its trailing edge, which unleashed torrential rain and strong winds. While I slept soundly, Louise, sensing the worsening conditions, brought the chairs back inside from the front balcony.
It continued raining on Monday, though it eased later in the afternoon. I took the bike and did a reconnaissance in the city, while the Brisbane River looked at places like a lake, it had not flooded the CBD. Some public buses began running again, only to be recalled by midday. As we monitored the flood maps for Brisbane, the full extent of the cyclone’s impact became clearer. Low-lying areas along the city’s many creeks and rivers were gradually being inundated. Surprisingly, Roma Street Station—Brisbane’s major train terminal, located right behind us—flooded and remained unusable for the next few days. Another completely unexpected event was the flooding of Hervey Bay, a town officially outside the cyclone-affected area, located some 300 km north of Brisbane. The floodwaters arrived without warning, catching residents off guard.
By Tuesday, the rain had stopped, and the sun started to break through, albeit behind lingering clouds. We brought everything back onto our balconies. While we escaped the worst, many communities faced a dreadful cleanup. No official damage estimates had been provided, but early indications suggested losses in the billions of dollars. That said, it could have been far worse had the cyclone maintained its strength and struck Brisbane directly. In that sense, we dodged a bullet.
Paul Budde