From philosophical interest to empirical reality
My long-standing interest in quantum technologies has never been purely technical. It has been conceptual and philosophical: how abstract scientific ideas move from theory into practice, and how societies decide when — and whether — to convert knowledge into power, infrastructure and economic consequence. For much of the past decade, quantum computing, communications and sensing sat comfortably in the realm of potential rather than actuality. We debated what quantum might mean, not what it was doing.
A new joint study by the OECD and the European Patent Office marks a clear turning point. It puts empirical substance behind a field that has often floated above hard evidence. Patent data, investment trends and workforce metrics now give quantum technologies a measurable footprint. In philosophical terms, this is the moment when possibility begins to confront reality.
What the OECD data tells us
The OECD data shows that the quantum sector has experienced exceptional growth over the past decade. International patent families in quantum technologies increased sevenfold between 2005 and 2024, growing at around 20% per year since 2014 — far outpacing innovation across most other technology domains. Quantum computing has emerged as the most dynamic segment, with patenting activity increasing almost twentyfold over the past decade and overtaking quantum communication in 2022.
Yet the most important insight is not growth itself, but change. Firm creation and investment surged until around 2021, then began to plateau. Investment volumes peaked in 2021, declined during the broader venture capital downturn of 2022–23, and partially recovered in 2024. Average deal sizes have fallen, even as the number of funded firms has remained relatively stable. This is not collapse, but consolidation — a sector moving from rapid expansion to focused development and early commercialisation.
A science-driven ecosystem, not a startup frenzy
The structure of the quantum ecosystem reinforces this interpretation. More than 80% of organisations active in quantum technologies are established companies, universities and public research institutions whose primary activities lie outside quantum itself. These actors account for the majority of quantum patents and job creation. Startups matter, but they are not the dominant drivers.
The workforce is highly science-driven. More than half of quantum startup founders hold a PhD, and job postings are overwhelmingly concentrated in research, computer science and education. Roles focused on commercialisation remain limited. This reframes the policy challenge. Quantum progress depends less on entrepreneurial churn and more on sustained research capacity, long-term skills development and institutional stability.
Strategic risks come into focus
The OECD study also exposes vulnerabilities that were easier to ignore during the hype phase. Quantum technologies depend on highly specialised inputs, including industrial diamonds and advanced materials with concentrated global supply chains. As quantum systems move closer to deployment, supply chain resilience becomes a strategic issue, not a technical footnote.
The report argues that governments must now balance support for fundamental research with efforts to strengthen supply chains, build talent pipelines and encourage collaboration between public and private actors. This is where quantum ceases to be only a science story and becomes an economic and strategic one.
Australia between ambition and execution
Australia fits squarely within this global transition. The country now has a clearly identifiable quantum ecosystem rather than a handful of isolated research efforts. Current government data indicates around 38 quantum companies operating in Australia, supported by more than two dozen research organisations and a growing network of specialised facilities. This represents real industrial and research capacity, not theoretical ambition.
Australia’s National Quantum Strategy reflects this shift from aspiration to execution. At the same time, Australia also illustrates the difficulties of turning ambition into delivery. PsiQuantum’s proposed utility-scale quantum computer near Brisbane remains the most high-profile single investment in the sector, backed by close to a billion dollars in public funding. It signals confidence, but it also carries risk. Planning and delivery delays have already emerged, underscoring a central theme of the OECD report: as quantum matures, success depends less on announcements and more on disciplined execution.
The China question
Beyond Australia and the OECD economies, there is a wider strategic context. While the OECD report does not single out China, it would be unwise to ignore its trajectory. China shows no sign of slowing its investment in frontier technologies and has demonstrated, through its state-driven push in artificial intelligence and advanced semiconductors — sometimes likened to a modern “Manhattan Project” — an ability to mobilise resources, talent and long-term planning at scale.
Whether quantum technologies follow a similar path remains uncertain, but the precedent matters. If China applies the same model to quantum, it could rapidly emerge as a leading force, reshaping the global landscape well beyond the OECD.
From promise to consequence
Quantum has not yet arrived as a general-purpose technology. But it has moved decisively beyond speculation. The OECD data makes that clear. The philosophical question now is no longer whether quantum is possible, but how different societies choose to realise it — and what they are prepared to invest, protect and prioritise when theory finally demands consequence.
Paul Budde